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Index > Poker games and rules > Odds and probabilities

What is the correct ranking for 3-card poker hands?

Author: Darse Billings
Last updated: 1995
Copyright © 2004 Darse Billings
The official and up-to-date version of this answer is here.

The standard ranking of poker hands is based on their frequency of occurrence in a five card hand. In three card hands the relative frequency of hands is different, so different in fact that three of a kind beats a straight, and a straight beats a flush.

The following is a break down of all three card poker hands. They can be used for certain three card games, such as Guts or 3-card-6. They can also be used to analyze starting hands for games like 7-Card Stud.

Hand Type      Kinds   Each   Total     Cuml   Rating
---------      -----   ----   -----     ----   ------
straight flush   12      4       48       48   0.9978
trips            13      4       52      100   0.9955
straight         12     60      720      820   0.9629
flush  **       274      4     1096     1916   0.9133
pair  ***       156     24     3744     5660   0.7439
Ace high         64     60     3840     9500   0.5701
King high        54     60     3240    12740   0.4235
Queen high       44     60     2640    15380   0.3041
Jack high        35     60     2100    17480   0.2090
Ten high         27     60     1620    19100   0.1357
Nine high        20     60     1200    20300   0.0814
Eight high       14     60      840    21140   0.0434
Seven high        9     60      540    21680   0.0190
Six high          5     60      300    21980   0.0054
Five high         2     60      120    22100   0.0000

** More on Flushes ------------------ High Card Kinds Percent Total Cuml Rating --------- ----- ------- ----- ---- ------ Ace high 64 23.4 256 1076 0.9513 King high 54 19.7 216 1292 0.9415 Queen high 44 16.1 176 1468 0.9336 Jack high 35 12.8 140 1608 0.9272 Ten high 27 9.9 108 1716 0.9224 Nine high 20 7.3 80 1796 0.9187 Eight high 14 5.1 56 1852 0.9162 Seven high 9 3.3 36 1888 0.9146 Six high 5 1.8 20 1908 0.9137 Five high 2 0.7 8 1916 0.9133
*** More on Pairs ----------------- Hand Type Kinds Each Total Cuml Rating --------- ----- ---- ----- ---- ------ AAx 12 24 288 2204 0.9003 KKx 12 24 288 2492 0.8872 QQx 12 24 288 2780 0.8742 JJx 12 24 288 3068 0.8612 TTx 12 24 288 3356 0.8481 99x 12 24 288 3644 0.8351 88x 12 24 288 3932 0.8221 77x 12 24 288 4220 0.8090 66x 12 24 288 4508 0.7960 55x 12 24 288 4796 0.7830 44x 12 24 288 5084 0.7700 33x 12 24 288 5372 0.7569 22x 12 24 288 5660 0.7439

In the preceding tables, "Kinds" refers to the number of card combinations in each class, while "Each" is the number of non-distinct hands of each Kind. The product of these two numbers gives the total number of hands in that class. "Cuml" is the cumulative total of all hands, and "Rating" is a percentile ranking of the lowest hand in the class.

Note that "Rating" is only an estimate of the probability of beating a random hand. To compute the exact probability, a given hand must be compared to the (49 choose 3) combinations of the remaining cards in the deck.